If we view the question from an emotional lens, there will never be a good answer, but that’s not how Bolts general manager Julien BriseBois does business.
“Ultimately, I felt and made the decision that if I agree to the terms he wanted in order to get a deal done, I would not be putting ourselves in the best position to chase championships going forward.”
The ‘why’ we seek was handled logically and historically.
Let’s talk about what BriseBois has done this offseason.
According to Evolving-Hockey, an NHL analytical website, after the flurry of moves the Bolts are projected to earn 95 points.
That’s up one point from last year’s projections at 94 with guys like Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev.
I want to present this because what BriseBois said in his press conference is often looked at from a short-term lens.
Jake Guentzel and Ryan McDonagh cost $15.75 million.
Stammer and Sergy cost $16.5 million.
Considering Stamkos would have taken a discount, that duo might have been cheaper.
So, in the short term, did acquiring Guentzel and McDonagh drastically change the outlook for next season versus the guys they already had? Good question.
However, I don’t think the moves from BriseBois should be judged next year.
We’re looking at a three-year window considering Nikita Kucherov is a free agent in 2027.
By flipping McDonagh for Sergy, you fill a short-term need while opening up cap space in two years.
By flipping Guentzel for Stamkos, you turn the clock back five years on a man who has logged 10 fewer goals than Stamkos these past three seasons.
In the next three years, the entire Top 6 is locked into deals.
Once J.J. Moser inks a contract (arbitration coming in a few weeks), three of your top-four defensemen are locked into deals, as well.
That’s on top of Andrei Vasilevskiy in the net.
The salary cap will continue to creep up, but the cost of your best players will be stagnant for a while.
Tampa Bay will not only have more money to play with, but prospects like Conor Geekie and Isaac Howard might be ready to join the group.
BriseBois will also have an entire arsenal of picks, besides a 2027 fifth-rounder.
